Geopolitical Tensions and the Disruption of LATAM and Caribbean Global Mobility and Tourism Markets

The geopolitical situation involving the Trump administration and Venezuela, particularly recent U.S. military actions, has triggered a significant crisis for tourism in Venezuela and created substantial knock-on effects across the wider Caribbean and northern South America. The primary impacts are twofold: immediate, acute operational disruptions and a more persistent, damaging shift in traveller perception and safety concerns.

In 2024, Venezuela reportedly received more than 2.5 million international tourists, according to data from the Ministry of Tourism. Preliminary data for 2025 indicates that approximately 2.8 million international visitors arrived in the country between January and October alone.

FAA-mandated airspace closures led to widespread, though temporary, flight cancellations and chaos, stranding passengers and disrupting travel to key destinations like Puerto Rico and the ABC Islands. Concurrently, reinforced government travel advisories have effectively removed Venezuela from mainstream tourism maps, causing a severe decline in its local tourism sector. Neighbouring destinations, while not in direct conflict, suffer from the fallout. Perceived regional instability dampens booking confidence, and the potential for sudden route changes by airlines and cruise lines introduces a new layer of uncertainty. Tourism-dependent economies in the Caribbean are particularly vulnerable to these disruptions. Travelers to the region are advised to exercise caution, monitor official advisories, and plan for potential logistical changes.

1. Immediate and Severe Travel Disruptions

The most direct consequence of the heightened geopolitical tensions has been severe, immediate disruption to regional travel infrastructure, primarily driven by U.S. government actions.

• Airspace Closures and Cancellations: U.S. military activity in Venezuela prompted the FAA to implement restrictions that temporarily shut down Venezuelan and parts of Caribbean airspace. This action resulted in widespread flight cancellations and rerouting, affecting destinations such as Puerto Rico, Aruba, and Curaçao.
• Operational Chaos: The sudden airspace closures led to significant operational challenges. Passengers were left stranded mid-trip, and airlines were forced to issue travel waivers. While some flight services have resumed, the operational recovery is expected to take several days, and regional air connectivity remains fragile.
• Escalated Travel Warnings: In response to the instability, numerous governments—including the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia—have issued or reinforced official advisories cautioning citizens against travel to Venezuela.

2. The Collapse of Tourism in Venezuela

The combination of political instability, security risks, and international advisories has led to a near-total collapse of Venezuela's leisure tourism industry.

• Exclusion from Mainstream Tourism: Strong government warnings and a lack of direct international flights have effectively placed Venezuela "off mainstream tourism maps." Major international tour operators no longer feature Venezuelan cultural or beach destinations in their packages.
• Decline of Cruise and Air Access: Cruise ship calls to Venezuelan ports have become increasingly rare, further isolating the country from international travel circuits.
• Decimation of the Local Sector: Venezuelan tourism businesses report sharp declines in both bookings and revenue. The absence of foreign visitors has become the norm, with the market now being sustained almost entirely by limited domestic travel.

3. Regional Spillover Effects and Economic Vulnerability

The crisis extends far beyond Venezuela's borders, creating significant challenges for neighbouring countries through both perceptual and operational channels.

• Negative Safety Perceptions: Tourism analysts warn that heightened geopolitical risk reduces travel demand to nearby Caribbean destinations. Even in locations that are not direct conflict zones, the perception of regional instability can deter potential visitors.
• Route Instability: Cruise lines and aviation networks are monitoring the situation closely. The risk of further tensions could force them to alter routes at short notice, creating uncertainty that discourages tourist bookings. In recent events, cruise lines have already modified itineraries to avoid spillover effects.
• Economic Vulnerability: Many small Caribbean island nations are heavily dependent on tourism revenue. A reduction in tourist arrivals, even if driven by perception rather than direct risk, can negatively impact employment and damage local economies.
• Security and Migration Pressures: Instability in Venezuela is also a source of regional migration flows, which contributes to heightened security concerns across the Caribbean and can indirectly influence travel planning and destination choices.

4. Impact Analysis by Destination

The effects of the crisis have been felt differently across the region, with islands closest to Venezuela experiencing the most acute operational disruptions.

Puerto Rico

• Immediate Impact: Air travel was heavily disrupted by the FAA airspace shutdown. At one point, nearly 60% of flights were cancelled at San Juan's airport, leaving some travellers stranded as airlines worked to clear backlogs.
• Travel Outlook: While Puerto Rico is functioning normally now that airspace has reopened, travellers may still experience delays or rescheduling during peak periods. It is recommended to check flight statuses and ensure travel insurance covers geopolitical disruptions.

Aruba, Curaçao, and Bonaire (The ABC Islands)

• Immediate Impact: Like Puerto Rico, these islands experienced widespread flight cancellations due to their proximity to the closed airspace. Airlines halted U.S. flights and are now resuming service with backlogs. Travelers in Curaçao reported significant uncertainty regarding flight timings.
• Travel Outlook: Travel advisories, such as those from the Dutch government, warn against risks in the wider region. While tourism activities on the islands are continuing, cruise lines have altered itineraries due to the disruption. Flight and cruise connections are expected to normalize but remain subject to short-notice changes if tensions escalate.

U.S. & British Virgin Islands

• Immediate Impact: Flights to the Virgin Islands were also disrupted due to the broader FAA shutdown of Caribbean airspace.
• Travel Outlook: Travelers should expect potential delays and cancellations tied to the overall recovery of Caribbean air traffic. While tourism infrastructure is functioning, verifying flight connectivity close to the departure date is advised.

Eastern Caribbean (Barbados, Antigua, St. Lucia)

• Immediate Impact: Destinations farther east also experienced knock-on effects. The broad application of airspace closures caused flight disruptions and impacted cruise operations, including embarkations at Bridgetown, Barbados, during peak travel times.
• Travel Outlook: These destinations continue regular operations but have demonstrated their vulnerability to regional airspace and travel network disruptions.

Colombia

• Immediate Impact: Colombia is not a direct point of tourist disruption in the same way as the Caribbean islands. However, political uncertainty and border tensions with Venezuela can negatively affect traveller perception.
• Travel Outlook: While Colombia's tourism sector operates normally, graphic news from its neighbour and regional rhetoric may depress booking confidence. This could cause some travellers to pivot to other South American destinations.

5. Guidance for Travelers

The current situation necessitates a cautious and well-informed approach to travel planning in the region.

Planning a Trip to Venezuela

• Recommendation: Not recommended. Official government advisories strongly caution against all but essential travel due to severe security risks and ongoing instability.
• Service Limitations: Travelers should expect extremely limited services, with most hotels, tour operators, and international flights scaled back or cancelled entirely.

Visiting Other Caribbean or South American Destinations

• Possibility of Travel: Most regional tourism markets remain open, but travellers should be prepared for potential disruptions, including flight rerouting and schedule changes.
• Influence of Perception: Some travellers are postponing or cancelling trips to nearby destinations out of caution, even where the actual risk is low.

Practical Tips

• Check Advisories: Before booking, consult official government travel advisories, such as those from the UK FCDO or the U.S. State Department.
• Confirm Schedules: Monitor flight schedules closely with airlines for any routes in the Caribbean or northern South America, as last-minute changes are possible.
• Purchase Appropriate Insurance: Consider travel insurance that specifically covers geopolitical disruption and evacuation. Note that many policies exclude coverage for destinations where an official advisory already warns against travel.

Summary

iPMI Global analyst Christopher Knight concludes, "The Trump–Venezuela situation is significantly suppressing tourism in Venezuela itself and creating knock-on effects for travel in the broader Caribbean and northern South America — largely through safety perceptions, airspace disruption and travel advisories. While mainstream Caribbean and South American destinations remain open, tourists should plan cautiously, expect potential flight disruption, and stay updated on advisories as the situation evolves."